PREDICTIONS OF DROUGHT LENGTH EXTREME ORDER-STATISTICS USING RUN THEORY

A new model has been developed here, incorporating prospective run theory to predict events based on order statistics. The difference equations for such a system are presented and the closed form solution is obtained in terms of parameters to which the practising hydrologist has access. Predictions are provided for duration of maximum drought lengths as a function of the definition of drought, the number of years over which the prediction is made, and the probability of inadequate water resources.