CLIMATE CHANGE NEGOTIATIONS POLARIZE

After three sessions of the UN-sponsored Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee for a Framework Convention on Climate Change, global warming negotiations appear to have polarized around two key issues. Countries are divided over how strictly the treaty should control greenhouse gas emissions and how to share the hardship of emission controls in the most fair and equitable manner. The United States' "go slow" position has frustrated European efforts to create a convention with binding targets and timetables for reducing greenhouse gases (GHGs). Developing nations fear that the United States' refusal to control CO2 emissions signals a lack of commitment toward halting global warming and foreshadows future equity conflicts over financial and technical assistance to help them adopt "climate friendly" development paths. Nevertheless, early negotiating positions can be deceptive. The existence of many significant, low cost energy reforms indicates the existence of untapped bargaining space for overcoming these immediate deadlocks. However, these "no regrets" energy reforms are only the easy, first steps toward arresting climate disruption. Powerful and deeply entrenched social forces will resist an increasingly desperate need to dramatically reduce the global combustion of fossil fuels.