SCENARIOS FOR AFRICAN ECONOMIC-INTEGRATION

Economic integration currently ranks as a leading development strategy among numerous others prescribed for Africa. Already no fewer than 11 economic communities exist on the continent: CEAO, ECOWAS and MRU in West Africa; UDEAC, CEPGL in Central Africa; SADC, PTA-COMESA and IOC in Eastern and Southern Africa; UMA in the Maghreb and PEC at the continental level. To these may be added the myriad agencies with more limited objectives. Overall, however, these organizations are, for the moment, ineffective; African integration exists only on paper. This article considers two scenarios for the next 25 years: a status quo scenario under both optimistic and pessimistic assumptions; and a scenario of effective integration bearing positive transformations.