DYNAMICS OF THE EAST-AFRICAN CLIMATE

Results of studies on regional climatic trends and the factors controlling the regional climate have been discussed in this paper. Potential impact of impending climatic change on the natural resources and socio-economic activities has also been projected. Well-recognised systems which control the space-time variation of rainfall and temperature over the region include the space time characteristics of (i) Intertropical convergence Zone (ITCZ), (ii) Monsoonal wind systems (iii) Subtropical anticyclones (iv) Tropical cyclones (v) Jetstreams (vi) Easterly/Westerly wave perturbations (vii) Extra-tropical weather systems (viii) Quasi-biennial oscillations and ENSO events with their telelinks. No statistically significant trends have been observed in the inter-annual characteristics of rainfall at most of the locations. Apart from urbanization signals from the large urban centres, no statistically significant trends have been observed in the temporal temperature patterns over the region. Inter-annual variation of temperature is seen to be inversely associated with rainfall which in turn is also associated with ENSO signals. However, data of mountain glaciers has shown depletion of glaciers but, the river flow data has not shown any decreasing trend so far. The lake levels also reflect only the inter-annual variations attributable to wet and dry conditions.