Customer-Centric Transformation of Public Bus Supply in Rural Counties

Taking the perspective of a county administration, this contribution provides the quantity structures to motivate and develop customer-centric adjustment strategies of regional public bus systems, profoundly challenged by the deepening demographic and structural changes in rural parts of Germany. The sharp decrease in travel demand and modal share towards the private car versus the unchanged scope of the network creates a dilemma situation, which was reflected by referring cases of advisory projects. The organization of this paper follows the course of investigation: First, a literature review summarizes the state of discussion of alternative service concepts and financing, including subject-oriented subsidization schemes. In the next step, drivers of operating costs and revenues were formalized in a system of geographic zones in the context of a regional transport supply-demand model-complemented by bus operating costs as well as revenues vs. subsidies in the counties under investigation. The obtained as-is ranges of indicators relevant to the bus operators demonstrate the necessity to offset shrinking patronages in conjunction with adequate cost reductions. The case study results were used to substantiate predictions for the upcoming years under an operating environment scenario of 2025. Based on these findings, market research needs and policy recommendations, operationalized by five proposed implementation projects, were derived.