PRODUCTION CHARACTERISTICS OF THE UNITED-STATES PECAN INDUSTRY

The cyclic, alternate bearing and correlative aspects of U.S. produced pecan [Carya illinoinensis (Wangenh.) K. Koch] nuts are characterized. An attempt to forecast production using stepwise autoregressive techniques identified a national level biennial cycle for cultivar (CV) and seedling (SG) class nuts and a novemennial (9 year) cycle for SG class nuts. The intensity of the biennial cycle at the national level has generally been low to moderate over the last 50 years for CV and SG class nuts with no clear time trend being expressed. During the most recent years (1979-1991), national production of CV class nuts has not exhibited pronounced bienniality, whereas that of SG class nuts exhibited a moderate bienniality. The nature of the the irregularity of cycling of U.S. and state production appears to nullify the use of univariate polynomial equations as a practical tool for accurately forecasting nut production.Nut production within individual states was also cyclic, with 2-, 3-, 5-, 6-, 10-, 12-, 14-, 15-, and 16-year cycles, depending on state and nut class. The most intense contemporary biennial cycles for CV class nuts were from Oklahoma, South Carolina, and North Carolina, whereas cycling of SG class nuts was most intense in Texas and Oklahoma. Correlations of production within and among states indicated that most interrelationships are relatively weak; however, national production of CV class nuts are highly correlated (r = 0.96) with the production of CV class nuts in Georgia, whereas that of SG class nuts is most correlated with that of Louisiana.