CAMPAIGNS, NATIONAL CONDITIONS, AND UNITED-STATES PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

One unresolved debate in election studies concerns the relative importance of political campaigns and the national political and economic climate in determining election outcomes. In this paper, a model of candidate support that incorporates campaign variables and national conditions is developed and tested using trial heat data from the 1984, 1988, and 1992 presidential elections. The results of the analysis indicate that, while both sets of variables have a significant impact on public opinion, national conditions have a greater impact on determining election outcomes than do campaign events.