THE REAL EXCHANGE-RATE, FISCAL-POLICY AND THE ROLE OF WEALTH - AN ANALYSIS OF EQUILIBRIUM IN A MONETARY UNION

This paper is concerned with the adjustment processes within a potential European monetary union and looks in particular at permanent asymmetric shocks that require an adjustment in a country's (or region's) real exchange rate. We first consider some of the implications of EMU and the question of asymmetries within the European economy. The presence of asymmetries and, in particular, different institutional structures in labour markets is a potential source of tension within a union and it could make a union difficult to sustain. However, automatic adjustment processes will be at work within a monetary union as a result of changes in relative price levels, which change real exchange rates, and also as a result of changes in wealth stocks. We use our econometric world model, NIGEM, to investigate the effects of asymmetric fiscal expansions and real exchange rate misalignments within a monetary union. In order to quantify the effects of such permanent asymmetric shocks we have introduced wealth into our model. Our simulations suggest that the principal impact of the fiscal expansion on both output and the price level will occur within the country in which the expansion occurs. Short-term gains are crowded out in the medium term, and while monetary union reduces crowding out in the short term, it increases the rate at which crowding out occurs thereafter. We also analyse the effects of real exchange rate misalignments and find that the processes of adjustment may be very protracted. This could cause strain on the union as adjustment costs are shared unequally.