INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE ON FRIEDMAN THEORY OF THE BUSINESS-CYCLE

被引:7
|
作者
GOODWIN, TH [1 ]
SWEENEY, RJ [1 ]
机构
[1] GEORGETOWN UNIV,WASHINGTON,DC 20057
关键词
D O I
10.1111/j.1465-7295.1993.tb00875.x
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
Milton Friedman's theory of the business cycle implies two empirical regularities tested for here. One regularity is that business cycles are asymmetric: The size of a contraction affects the size of the following expansion, but not vice versa. The second regularity is that a supply-side ceiling to aggregate output limits the size of expansions. Friedman's correlation methods yield only very weak support for the asymmetry hy-pothesis when applied to real GNP data of eight OECD countries. A time series model with a ceiling component fits the data well for a majority of the countries.
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页码:178 / 193
页数:16
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