'Managing China': risk and risk management in Japan's China policy

This article considers the ways in which various risks, threats and opportunities posed to Japan by the 'rise ofChina' have been articulated and managed in post-Cold War Japan. It focuses in particular on the period since 2001, and more narrowly on the nature of threat perceptions and risk assessments that emerged during Koizumi Junichiro's prime ministership, but also considers some of the continuities in Japanese perceptions of China since Koizumi's departure. It shows how the discourse in Japan on the 'China threat' has evolved since the 1990s to include assessments of a rising China which go beyond the traditional indicators of capabilities and intentions and which attempt to measure the risks (seen as both opportunities and dangers) posed by new challenges. It suggests, therefore, that the concept of risk helps to explain the multiple strategies adopted by the Japanese government as a means of 'managing' the rise of China.