BUSINESS CYCLE FLUCTUATIONS IN POLAND'S LUBLIN REGION

The paper examines business cycles in Poland's Lublin province using quarterly business sentiment indicators calculated since the second quarter of 2001. Both composite and sector indicators are calculated on the basis of the results of quarterly surveys covering 320 companies and 350 households. Sector indicators are calculated as weighted arithmetic means of respondents' assessment of their current condition and forecasts for the next quarter. Composite indicators are weighted averages of sector indicators, with the shares of individual sectors in gross value added generated in the province used as weights. Industry and construction in Lublin province began to slow down in the second quarter of 2007, according to Kowerski. By now the slowdown in these sectors has become evident. The slump in the service sector began in the first quarter of 2008, and consumers felt the downturn in the second quarter of 2008. The retail sector has yet to experience a downturn, according to Kowerski. The composite indicator of business sentiment began to deteriorate markedly in the second quarter of 2008. The research shows that the economy of the Lublin region began to slow down in the first half of 2008, though it is unclear if this trend can be called a recession, the author says.