THE CONCENTRATION OF CAPABILITIES AND INTERNATIONAL-TRADE

A voluminous literature has been produced on the influence of a hegemonic distribution of power on international commerce. However, little research has been conducted on the effects that other features of the distribution of power have on trade. Further, few studies have compared the impact of international political and economic variables on the level of global trade. This study provides some of the first statistical results bearing on these issues. The results indicate that both international political and economic variables help shape patterns of global commerce. Among the political determinants of trade, the distribution of power is of considerable importance. But it is important to distinguish among various features of the distribution of power, since different features of this distribution are related to trade in markedly different ways. The relationship between hegemony and trade is highly sensitive to which classifications of hegemony are analyzed. There is also substantial evidence that the concentration of capabilities is related at least as strongly to trade as hegemony is and that the nature of the relationship between concentration and commerce is much more complex and richer than is commonly thought. Rather than being linear, there is a quadratic relationship between the concentration of capabilities and global trade. Moreover, concentration itself is a function of the number of major powers in the international system and the relative inequality in their capabilities. When the number of major powers is held constant, there is a quadratic relationship between relative inequality and trade. And when relative inequality is held constant, there is a direct relationship between the number of major powers and international commerce.