Probabilistic Models for Erosion Parameters and Reliability Analysis of Earth Dams and Levees

Probabilistic models for two soil erosion parameters needed to model the erodibility of water-retaining structures are developed. The models predict the values of the critical shear stress and the coefficient of erosion starting from other measurable soil properties. The models include both noncohesive and cohesive contributions to the erosion behavior. An importance sampling simulation method is parallelized to be implemented in parallel computing resources to calibrate the models and estimate the unknown parameters using laboratory data. The probabilistic models are then used to develop fragility curves that capture the vulnerability of a typical earth dam to internal erosion. (C) 2016 American Society of Civil Engineers.