DEVELOPMENT OF THE MEDIUM-TERM PROGNOSIS OF THE VOLGA FEDERAL DISTRICT DEVELOPMENT USING COMPATIBLE PATTERNS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH

The development of predictive economic growth models, their improvement and adaptation, and the transforming conditions of institutional factors require constant refinement of the methodological tools. Upon that, the most important task is the search for a system of factors that would explain the trends in economic dynamics on the one hand and, on the other hand, would be unified for the whole set of regional systems, what creates the possibility of a comparative analysis for economic growth drivers. This paper is devoted to the investigation of this problem. The object of the study is unified factors of economic growth in the regions of the Volga Federal District. The subject of the study is a system for modeling the parameters of economic dynamics based on the identification of exogenous factors which are uniform for all regional systems. As a result of the implemented estimates based on econometric modeling tools, economic growth models for the regions of the Volga Federal District were determined based on the principles presented above. This allowed using the methods of scenario modeling to develop a system of prognostic assessments of their economic development for the period up to 2020, as well as to justify the system of measures for state regulation of regional development in the conditions of cyclical development of the national economic system.