MODELLING OF LANDSLIDE PROCESSES FOR LANDSLIDE HAZARD FORECASTING WITHIN THE TERRITORY OF "KAZAN" SKI COMPLEX AND THE CITY OF INNOPOLIS

A regional short-term landslide hazard forecast was performed using a digital model of geological medium and the method of engineering-geological analogy: an engineering- geological zoning was conducted; using data from standard areas, the critical values of surface slopes were calculated for the identified types of soils and different types of humidity; the obtained data was extrapolated, verified and corrected. It was established that the highest level of forecasted landslide susceptibility is typical for spring 2014 (2.46 km 2, 5.37%), the lowest - for the summer (0.36 km 2, 1.58%). The lower parts of the slopes will be mainly exposed to landslide deformations. Earthflow is the predominant type of landslides, with rupture surface up to 1.5 m. There is a probability of occurrence of single slides, suffusion landslides and soil-falls.