Factors Influencing the Scale of Chinese Treasury Bonds Issuance, and Prediction Thereof

This paper puts forward the background and the research on the scale of treasury bond issuance and the factors that influence it. The authors analyze the impacting factors and carry out an empirical investigation using the factor analysis methods, and then forecast the issuance scale of Treasury bonds in recent years. The paper argues that the debt burden rate and debt capacity of residents have become the most important factors influencing the issuance scale of treasury bonds. It is believed that the stable rapid development and growth of China's economy may play a decisive role in determining a reasonable range of scales of treasury bond issuance.