RETROSPECTIVE VOTING AND FUTURE EXPECTATIONS - THE CASE OF THE BUDGET DEFICIT IN THE 1988 ELECTION

According to theories of retrospective voting, voters hold an incumbent administration responsible for problems or achievements that occur during its term. During the Reagan administrations, the deficit was one such problem. In this article, die interplay between the deficit issue and die voting decision is investigated. The major findings of this study are the following: (a) The deficit was a salient issue in 1988, and for many voters it was the most important problem facing die nation; (b) voters recognized that die deficit was a Reagan-era phenomenon; (c) an individual's perception of which party was better able to solve die deficit problem strongly influenced the vote; (d) many thought die Republican Party would better manage the deficit issue in the future. Thus Republicans suffered very little at the ballot box as a result of the issue. Future refinements of retrospective-voting theory must take into account this failure to hold the incumbent party accountable for problems encountered during its term.