DETERMINING FACTORS OF RECENT BUILDING IN THE LISBON METROPOLITAN AREA (1991-2011)

This paper examines the local factors of urban expansion in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area (LMA). Based on the 2011 Census data, an OLS multiple linear regression model was developed in order to estimate the determining factors for the increase in the number of buildings between 1991 and 2011. Results show that: i) 50% of the recent buildings are concentrated in 5 municipalities, the majority of which are located in the LMA's 2nd ring; ii) densely-populated areas, areas located near the primary and secondary centres, and areas served by public transport do not attract new constructions; iii) construction is not always hindered by protected areas, mainly where urban pressure is greater; iv) expansion areas planned by municipalities are likely to increase the probability of construction. The results thus suggest a fairly inefficient planning system, based in weak orientations and prohibitions that might be easily by-passed.