Analysis and Prediction of the Incidence of Smear-positive Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Cienfuegos

Background: the elimination of tuberculosis as a public health problem requires improvement of preventive actions focusing on smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis patients. Objectives: to analyze the incidence of smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis in the municipality of Cienfuegos during 1995-2013 and to establish the prediction for the four-year period from 2014 through 2017. Methods: a retrospective descriptive study involving 133 notified smear-positive patients was conducted. The variables analyzed were: age, sex, health area, smear result, diagnostic delay and setting where diagnosis was established. The prediction was performed using the Brown's exponential smoothing method. Results: positive smears showed a decreasing trend, accounting for 56.1% of all cases of pulmonary tuberculosis. Male patients and the group aged 60 years and over predominated. Eighty four point two percent of the patients had high grading in the sputum examinations performed. Less than 52% of the diagnoses were established in the primary health care and only 50% was reached within the time set by the program as an operational indicator. A discrete decline in new smear-positive cases in the next four years is predicted. Conclusions: the elimination of tuberculosis as a health problem can be achieved in the medium term in Cienfuegos; however the persistent failure to comply with the indicators evaluating preventive actions for smear-positive cases is and will be a serious obstacle to reducing morbidity and transmissibility of the disease in this municipality.