EMPLOYMENT CHANGES IN CENTRAL LONDON IN THE 1980S .2. UNDERSTANDING RECENT FORCES FOR CHANGE AND FUTURE-DEVELOPMENT CONSTRAINTS

In the second of two papers the motive forces driving current development of the central London economy are set against possible constraints on its ability to grow in the future. It is concluded that, while growth in finance and business service activity which has been the prime dynamic force within the local economy over the recent past is likely to continue, the rate of this growth depends crucially on London maintaining its position as an international financial centre in the face of competition from other European cities. Labour shortages arising from the demographic structure of its population are identified as a source of difficulty but one that can be moderated by the smooth timing of growth and an effective rail system. It is clear, however, that investment in new rail facilities will be hampered if their financing is related too closely to current revenues which are exposed to short-run variations in property values rather than to the pursuit of a longer term strategy for the development of central London. -from Authors