POPULATION-GROWTH TRENDS IN INDIA - 1991 CENSUS

The decennial census counted the total population of India at 843.931 million as of the sunrise of March 1, 1991. The total is 160.6 million higher than that of a decade earlier in 1981. The actual census count exceeded by 45 million the official projections for 1991 based on the 1971 census. However, the official projections for the same year based on the 1981 census fell short by 7.6 million only. Most of the observed differences are explained by the slower decline in the fertility levels. The population growth rate peaked during 1971-81, perhaps in 1972-73 (based on the Sample Registration Scheme data). The average annual exponential growth rate declined marginally to 2.11 per cent (4.5%) after having remained at a plateau for the previous two decades of 1961-71 and 1971-81. At this point in time, the fertility and mortality trends indicate that India will reach the replacement level fertility [Net Reproductive Rate of Unity] by the years 2010-2015. It can be said with a greater degree of certainty that the official target of reaching the replacement level fertility by the year 2000 A.D. will not be reached. Based on the 1991 census results, it can be said that India will reach the billion mark by the turn of the century. The World Bank projects a population of 1,350 million by the year 2025 A.D., and a stationary population of 1,862 million by the year 2150 A.D., assuming that the replacement level fertility [Net Reproductive Rate = 1] in India is reached about the year 2015 A.D.