HOW THE NATIONAL FORECASTING CENTRE IN OMAN DEALT WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE GONU

Tropical Cyclone Gonu affected the coastal areas of Oman during the period of 5th 7th June 2007. The low pressure system which first developed on the 1st of June 2007 southwest of India intensified slowly as it moved west north-westwards towards the coastal areas of Oman reaching a super cyclonic storm (according to IMD classifications) on the 4th of June. The storm then lost its strength well before reaching the coastal areas of Oman. Tropical cyclones very rarely reach that intensity in the Arabian Sea and seldom enter the Gulf of Oman (at least from the start of records in 1945). However, according to unpublished notes by Oman Forecasting Centre (see also Membery 2001, 2002), on 4th June 1890, a tropical cyclone brought 24 hours of torrential rain to Batinah and Muscat regions, with severe flooding and widespread damage to property. This evidence, which is not known to many, clearly shows that although cyclone Gonu might have been one of the most destructive cyclones affected Oman, it is not the only one. This paper highlights the history of tropical cyclones that affected Oman and gives details on how the Oman Forecasting Centre managed and dealt with cyclone Gonu. A situation of this type was anticipated, but encountered for the first time by both forecasters and decision makers at the Directorate General of Meteorology and Air Navigation (DGMAN). Lessons learned and measures for future decisions on how to deal with severe weather events are discussed.