Dynamic Effects of Drought on the U.S. Beef Supply Chain

This research employs an agricultural sector model that links seasonal crop production with disaggregated livestock production sectors, in tandem with observed quarterly data on U.S. drought conditions to assess the long term economic implications of drought for U.S beef cattle producers. Short term impacts show increases in feed costs as well as increases in cattle slaughter resulting from drought-induced culling. The price of live cattle decreases in the short run; however, feed prices remain above baseline levels, and beef cattle breeding inventories decline in the long run, leading to fewer calves moving through the supply chain.