PROGNOSTIC SCORES IN ESOPHAGEAL OR GASTRIC VARICEAL BLEEDING

Numerous scoring systems have been developed for the prediction of outcome of variceal bleeding; however, only a few have been evaluated adequately. The object of this study was to improve the classical Child-Pugh score (CPS) and to test other scores from the literature. Patients (n = 82) with endoscopically confirmed variceal bleeding and long-term sclerotherapy were included in the study. Linear logistic regression (LR) was applied to different sets of prognostic variables with regard to 30-day mortality. In addition, scores from the literature were evaluated on the data set. Performance was measured by the accuracy and receiver-operating characteristic curves. The application of LR to all five CPS variables (accuracy, 80 % was superior to the classical CPS (70 % LR with selection from the CPS variables or from other sets of variables resulted in no improvement. Compared with CPS only three scores from the literature, mainly based on subsets of the CPS variables, showed an improved accuracy. It is concluded that CPS is still a good scoring system; however, it can be improved by statistical analysis using the same variables. © 1990 Informa UK Ltd All rights reserved: reproduction in whole or part not permitted.