AN EMPIRICAL-ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC-PERFORMANCE UNDER THE MARKETING ORDER FOR RAISINS

This study utilizes a dynamic econometric model of the California raisin industry to compare predictions of prices, production, profits, and related measures under the volume control program with predictions under several no-control scenarios. The outcomes are evaluated in relation to performance criteria proposed by a USDA study team. The twenty-two-year comparisons suggest that the public interest may have been well served by the raisin volume control program, or at worst there was no significant welfare loss.