Challenges and Successes of Import Substitution in the Russian Industry

The article summarizes results of monitoring the processes and problems of import substitution in Russian industry, held by Institute for Economic Policy and based on surveys of the directors of industrial enterprises in 2014-2016. Enterprises' managers were interviewed not as producers of Russian goods, but as consumers of import machinery, raw materials and fabrics. Pre-devaluation estimation of Russian industry's readiness to switch to the Russian substitutes of import showed significant critical dependence on import of domestic enterprises, which had been confirmed also in December of 2014. Lack of production of machinery, raw materials and fabrics similar to foreign, on the territory of Russia was and remains the main problem in import substitution both in the beginning of 2015 and at the end of 2016. Low quality of already produced substitutes also constrains broad import substitution in industrial enterprises' purchases. Insufficient volume of Russian industry output comes on the last place in the rating of restrictions limiting import substitution, according to enterprises. Nevertheless, Russian industry is able to refuse from import and switch to Russian analogs, primarily in terms of machinery and equipment. However, the rate of maintained import had always exceeded the scale of import substitution in 2015-2016. Exchange rate strengthening and adaptation to new economic conditions reduced the scale of the real import substitution and industrial plans in this area.