HUNGARY IN TRANSITION - A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM-MODEL COMPARISON WITH AUSTRIA

We approach the problem of Hungary's transformation from a partially centrally planned to a market-oriented economy with a cross-country comparison using two computable general equilibrium (CGE) models of Hungary, 1977 and 1986, and one of Austria, 1976. These three models represent a continuum of small open economies and allow a ''quasidynamic'' analysis using static CGE models. We examine two types of transformation issues: external (trade liberalization, import price reductions, and redirection of foreign trade; ''Dutch Disease reversal'') and internal (decreases in subsidy levels). Overall, it is clear that with Hungary's borrowing constraints, liberalization should not be pursued in isolation; a change in the tax structure is necessary at the same time. The results for Austria indicate that liberalization brings smaller welfare improvements accompanied by smaller increases in the current account and government deficits.