Is it predictable the nominal exchange rate in the long term through its monetary fundamental? The evidence for Mexico 1995-2008

In this work the relation of long existing term between the fundamental type of nominal change and its monetary ones is analyzed, within the framework of the present exchange regime of flotation (1995-2008). Specifically the predictability of the movements in the fundamental type of change from its monetary ones is investigated. The analysis of the predictability of the type of change is motivated because a) exists few studies on the subject in Literature for Mexico, since most of the studies on the type of change in Mexico they have been elaborated to establish his determinants, and b) at the present time does not exist a consensus on the subject and it is tried to contribute to the debate demonstrates empiricist for the case of Mexico.