EFFECTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST AND WARNING COMMUNICATION: RECENT SOCIAL SCIENCE CONTRIBUTIONS

Knowledge regarding how people obtain, understand, and use warning information is critical to saving lives and protecting property, yet scientifically valid and reliable research to support this part of the tropical cyclone (TC) warning process has been limited. This is due in part to misconceptions about the social sciences and the theories, knowledge and methodologies they offer. To help fill this gap, we highlight some topics and issues where social science research offers valuable contributions to the TC forecast and warning process, and present findings from some recent TC-related research projects. A range of studies (albeit limited in number) includes social science research on how individuals interpret risk, the importance and impact of delivering clear messages, the communication of uncertainty; and, more specifically, on the TC forecast and warning process, including the effective communicating of storm surge risk. We also discuss some findings related to promoting appropriate protective actions, and understanding economic and societal impacts. We conclude by identifying some shortcomings in empirical research in this area, and offer recommendations for improved integration of social sciences into the TC forecast and warning process.