Economic Integration and New Export Opportunities for the Eurasian Economic Union

At a time when oil prices are low, non-oil exports are important for the members of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). This study assesses the effects of the EEU's economic integration on the development of new exports. EEU countries are far behind global export leaders in several categories according to the revealed comparative advantage, used by the Hausmann-Klinger method to assess national export baskets. Belarus exports the most products, and Russia and especially Armenia and Kazakhstan export notably fewer. The comparative advantages of Kazakhstan and Russia are concentrated mainly in minerals, chemical products and metals. The export structure for the other EEU countries is more diverse, with a high share of foodstuffs in Armenia and textiles in Belarus. Kazakhstan and, to a greater extent, Belarus and Russia show a rather complex export basket, significantly ahead of Armenia according to this indicator. For the EEU as an independent participant, its trade complexity index is higher than that for its member countries individually. This article uses the Hausmann-Klinger methodology to identify the future comparative advantages of the EEU countries. These are product groups, towards which a structural transformation of the EEC exports most likely occurs. The research focuses on the integration aspect of possible non-oil exports, seeking to identify goods, including chemicals and textiles, that can eventually provide a comparative advantage for the EEU as a whole. Most of the products considered have a greater economic complexity than those in the EEU's current export basket, so would improve its overall export structure.